On October 24, Dr. Bruce Hoffman, renowned terrorism and security expert, joined The Tucson Committee on Foreign Relations to deliver an insightful presentation reflecting on his discussion from the previous year regarding the ongoing crisis following the October 7 attacks. In a virtual Member Bonus Event, Dr. Hoffman outlined seven essential lessons Israel has drawn from the recent conflict and its larger implications.
Lesson 1: The Importance of a Phase IV Plan
Dr. Hoffman opened by emphasizing the four critical phases of war: Intelligence, Combat, Occupation/Stabilization, and Pacification/Reconstruction. Israel’s approach to the conflict mirrored the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, he argued, where planning for the post-combat phase was neglected. Israel’s strategy presumed a smooth transition from occupation to stabilization, yet was left without a concrete “day-after” plan for Gaza.
Lesson 2: A Policy–Not An Intelligence–Failure
Hoffman highlighted a crucial point: the oversight wasn’t due to an intelligence lapse but a policy failure. Israel Defense Forces’ BG Amit Saar had cautioned Prime Minister Netanyahu twice in 2023 about the potential for escalating attacks. However, political divides within the Israeli government sidelined these warnings. According to Hoffman, these internal fractures left Israel vulnerable, as adversaries saw an opening to exploit what they perceived as a “weak, divided society.” Echoed by IDF soldiers who informed their commander of the similar imminent threat, to be met with “It seems imaginary to me”.
Lesson 3: Determined Terrorists Will Overcome Technological Superiority
Reflecting on Israel’s reliance on technological superiority, Hoffman noted that determined enemies could still breach high-tech defenses. Israel’s assumption of security due to IDF’s “unrivaled technological mastery” was tested, reminiscent of America’s experiences with asymmetric warfare in Afghanistan.
Lesson 4: Swarming Attacks Invariably Produce Chaos, Disorder, Paralysis, Bloodshed, & Tragedy
Coordinated attacks, Hoffman explained, have become a cornerstone of modern terrorism, designed to create confusion and overwhelm defenses. These tactics disrupt command chains, paralyze emergency responses, and increase casualties in crowded urban areas. Teamed with multiple drone attacks, urban centers would live a nightmare of bloodshed and tragedy.
Lesson 5: War of Narratives Matters as Much as The Kinetic War
The role of online information warfare, Hoffman noted, is now as pivotal as physical conflict. Platforms sympathetic to Hamas have amplified its messaging, reaching a broad audience. He likened the reach to another major terrorist group, saying, “Bin Laden would have loved to have this access to reach a similarly vast audience after 9/11.” Hoffman cited a recent example where the Associated Press’s tweet on a hospital airstrike in Gaza led to widespread misinterpretation, highlighting the rapid spread of misinformation that challenges Israeli narratives.
Lesson 6: “Ultra violence” Spreads
According to Hoffman, groups like ISIS have pioneered “ultra violence” on social media to recruit and radicalize supporters. Graphic portrayals of violence serve dual purposes: terrorizing enemies and promoting ideological support. In the October 7 attacks, Israeli SIM cards found in Hamas attackers’ phones illustrated how connectivity is exploited to maintain narrative control on both sides.
Lesson 7: Growing “Legitimacy” of Terrorism
Finally, Hoffman addressed the growing acceptance of terrorism as a means for oppressed groups to oppose powerful adversaries. He voiced concerns that some U.S. campus protests, by displaying flags of groups like Hamas, lend support to organizations such as Hezbollah and ISIS, unwittingly encouraging terrorism through perceived solidarity.
In closing, Hoffman reflected on Israel’s dual battle: military success paired with political vulnerability. The destruction in Gaza, while achieving certain military objectives, has resulted in humanitarian crises, casting a shadow on Israel’s international standing and becoming a domestic issue for its allies. “Israel is changing this narrative,” he remarked, emphasizing Israel’s need to restore relationships with Arab allies amid calls for a ceasefire.
As the presentation concluded, Dr. Hoffman left the audience with a poignant question: “How can that long, elusive ‘moment for peace’ now ever be found?”
Bruce Hoffman has been studying terrorism and insurgency for nearly five decades. Hoffman formerly held the Corporate Chair for Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency and was previously director of the Arroyo Center’s Strategy & Doctrine Program, Washington Office director, vice president for external affairs, and acting director of the Center for Middle Eastern Public Policy at the RAND Corporation.
He was appointed a commissioner on the FBI 9/11 Review Commission by the U.S. Congress and has been Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the Central Intelligence Agency; adviser on counterterrorism to the Coalition Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq, and, adviser on counterinsurgency to Multinational Forces—Iraq Headquarters, Baghdad, Iraq.
Hoffman is the recipient of the United States Intelligence Community Seal Medallion, the highest commendation given to a non-government employee. He is the author of several award-winning books. His latest book, God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America, was published earlier this year by Columbia University Press.
Sources:
Dr. Bruce Hoffman’s Speech at the Tucson Committee on Foreign Relations Virtual Event on October 24, 2024.
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