The Mouse Roars: Canada Confronting the “American Elephant”

4 days ago
6 min read

Having the United States as a neighbor is unlike living close to any other — and Canada can attest to it. On January 15, Martin Regg Cohn quoted former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau, who compared living next to the U.S. as similar to sleeping with an “elephant.” “No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast … one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” Canada, today, feels every twitch, every tariff, and every taunt.

Regg Cohn is a political columnist for the Toronto Star, a Senior Fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University and the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, and former foreign correspondent in over 40 countries. His position from and reporting on all things “Canada” sparked a lively discussion at the Tucson Country Club. Providing his thoughtful perspective as both a journalist and what he calls an “American apologist,” Regg Cohn offered guidance and insight into Canadian viewpoints and the growingly precarious relationship with their neighbor, the United States.

Outweighed, Outnumbered, And Outgunned

Picture this: You are in a swimming pool. It is hot — hotter than an Arizona summer. The pool is packed, and lifeguards are trying to figure out how to get people out of the pool. Someone gets an idea and the lifeguard gets a megaphone and says, “Would all Canadians please leave the pool now?”

Regg Cohn used this “joke” to target the Canadians at the event, and it worked; Canadians in the room laughed. Americans did not. He emphasized that Canadians always follow the rules, and to imagine if Americans were in the same situation. “What? Why should I have to leave? Somebody else should leave the pool first, right?” It is not just a joke, Regg Cohn made clear. It is rather a parable for what makes us different, and reveals a lot about Canada.

According to Regg Cohn, Canadians believe in peace, order, and good government, and Americans are raised on the mantra of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness — now rather understood largely as individual liberty, or even as an increase in libertarianism. The word, Regg Cohn underscored, is not a dirty one, but simply a different way Americans approach life. While Canadians and Americans may appear to be similar on the surface, it is Regg Cohn’s view that we are different inside. And for many Canadians, these differences are worth fighting for. “We are outweighed. We are outnumbered. We are outgunned. But we are not out of options,” Regg Cohn pointed out. Canadian sensitivity to the U.S. has only been heightened by President Donald Trump’s mockery of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, referring to Canada as the “51st state.” The rhetoric is one often dismissed in U.S. politics, where Trump has mocked both former President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama, but Regg Cohn called attention to the disrespect felt north of the border.

Pivotal Treaties Shaping Canada-U.S. Relations

It is easy to forget the depth of the U.S.-Canada relationship and agreements that have stemmed from it. It is even easier to forget that these agreements may not always exist. The two countries have long been deeply integrated, as shown by Canada’s role in creating the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a lasting military partnership in which Canada serves as the “eyes and ears up North,” as Regg Cohn explained. This integration is also evident in economics between the two. Free trade dominated the 1988 election in Canada, and former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was vindicated as Canadians came to see that free trade, once feared as “selling out” the country’s economy or culture, actually stabilized the bilateral relationship and created significant prosperity on both sides of the border. Regg Cohn expanded on this, highlighting how the framework evolved into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that included Mexico and brought them into the North American economic system that was fundamental, but imperfect. When President Trump came to power in 2016, he renegotiated NAFTA and then proclaimed the revised agreement to be the best treaty ever negotiated by the United States, according to Regg Cohn. However, after his reelection, Trump disregarded the very treaty he had promoted. “And the rest is history,” Regg Cohn stated.

Changes In Canada Under The Trump Administration

Trump wants to “make America great again.” The problem is, he wants Canada to pay the price. Regg Cohn described how Trump has treated Canada since his election and the push to make Canadian ties transactional, but “you cannot put a price on reliability, stability, and trustworthiness.” Today, the biggest single import from Canada is oil, eluding to problems in U.S. trade surplus existing largely because Americans need, want, and actively buy Canadian energy. Regg Cohn emphasized that no one is forcing them to do so, and alternatives like Venezuelan oil would take time to replace that of Canada’s. Trump’s strategy has been to destabilize the trading relationship and scare away foreign and even American investment from Canada with the perception that “the U.S. can only get richer if Canada is poorer.” This logic reflects a long-term belief that weakening Canada economically would make it easier to absorb politically, though Regg Cohn remained unconvinced how impoverishing Canada helps the U.S., when their problems inevitably become U.S. problems. “If you break it, you own it, and if you own us, we’re going to cost you.” While the U.S. tends to treat trade as solely transactional, Canada favors a rules-based order and has responded by seeking greater independence, according to Regg Cohn; Canadians are boycotting U.S. food in favor of Mexican imports, laying the groundwork for pipelines to the Pacific to reduce dependence on U.S. refineries, and questioning how long the U.S. can act as if Canada is unnecessary.

Friends, Or Foes?

Regg Cohn posed the simple but complex question: Does the U.S. need Canada? The answer, both economically and strategically, is yes. Canada is the United States’ largest trading partner, and in 2024, the top destination for U.S. exports, supporting many American jobs and serving as the number-one export market for 34 states. Neither the southern neighbor of Mexico, China, or even Russia can match Canada’s purchasing power or Canadian clientele.

Geography and security are also important; Who will the U.S. call when their back is against the wall? “It is not Canada that the Russians want to nuke, it is you,” Regg Cohn pointed out, and while you can change friends, you cannot change neighbors. Canada lacks leverage in a “face to face” fight with the U.S., but has still been one of the only close allies willing to stand up to the U.S., even as others choose quieter diplomacy, and China remains one of the only countries to retaliate. This has its own unintended consequences, as U.S. hostility has pushed Canada to repair ties with China, weakening North America’s collective leverage. This is not just creating a Canada problem, but rather a U.S. problem, shrinking its own influence against a powerful state like China. Canada continues to strengthen its independence and unity, proving that attempts to pressure them have done the opposite. “We are coming together as a country, thanks to you,” Regg Cohn stated.

Stuck Sleeping With The Enemy

The U.S.-Canada relationship will never recover. While trade and investment will one day improve, the personal friendship has been fundamentally damaged. Regg Cohn expressed that trust has been broken not only by Trump, but by all Americans who empowered Trump on voting day and enabled him in the years since. Canadians now understand where they stand and who they are “sharing a bed with.” The U.S. is no longer the “friendly elephant” crowding the bed, and the U.S.-Canada relationship now rests on geography and no longer on generosity of spirit. Regg Cohn does not even see Americans getting along with Americans right now. Canadians are angry not just at Trump’s loud rhetoric, but more so at the silence of Americans when Canada has been targeted.

Yet Canada is not taking this lying down. The country’s shift from reliance to resilience has pushed Canadian leaders to articulate this independent stance, which is captured in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent speech in Davos, in which he emphasized that “Canada thrives because we are Canadian.” While the powerful words signaled that Canada is prepared to defend its autonomy, it is important to note as Regg Cohn argued, we are all in this together whether we like it or not: The United States’ president is Canada’s problem, but what he is doing to Canada will ultimately be the United States’ problem too. An irreversibly destabilized relationship weakens both countries, chipping away at the long-term geopolitical security on both sides of the border. Things may improve over time, but the familiar love-hate dynamic that once defined the relationship will never feel the same. Trust, once lost, is extraordinarily difficult to rebuild. As Regg Cohn declared, it is the United States’ turn to speak up.