Great Power Rivalry in a Transforming World: The Sino-US Rivalry in Context
- Nov 14
- 7 min read
In our ever transforming 21st century, major geopolitical trends will continue to shape our world and the relations between nations and associated instruments of national power. We continue to see technological change, supply chain disruptions, and rising competition among global powers, particularly from China as they expand their economic and military influence. It is crucial to understand these shifts to anticipate the challenges of our future world order, as they are redefining just how states pursue influence and security.
Mike Studeman retired in 2023 after 35 years in the Navy, reaching the rank of a two-star admiral. He led thousands of intelligence professionals at sea and ashore, as well, serving as Global Communications Center, Cyber Intelligence Center, and the Office of Naval Intelligence. Having led major intelligence commands and served in regions across the Indo-Pacific, South America, and beyond, Studeman brings considerable experience in analyzing global security trends. A former White House Fellow, he continues to write, consult, and speak on how China’s rise and other evolving geopolitical forces are transforming the future of global power and competition. Studeman provides a uniquely informed perspective on the dynamics of our current world order and the continuous rivalry between China and the United States, and illustrates the importance of positioning ourselves well for the future amongst the current dramatic geopolitical change.
The “Dangerous D’s”
Our current geopolitical challenges can be captured by macrotrends, defined by Studeman, known as the six “Dangerous D’s.” : destabilization, deglobalization, disintegration, disruption, dysfunction, and disinformation. Studeman reminds us that the world is facing a period of extreme destabilization, particularly as conflict spreads. Studeman emphasized that peacefulness is in decline, with almost 60 countries facing conflicts. These conflicts tend to cross borders and are more impactful to their neighbors, or as our speaker characterized it, “internationalized”. Once internationalized, these are much harder to solve, creating much longer lasting conflicts with wider geographical spread and the sense that no place on this planet is safe. Many elements that signal major conflicts are already in place, such as geopolitical tension, economic dissatisfaction, and environmental stress. More countries than ever before are spending more on defense and security, with an estimated $20 trillion now devoted to securitization and internal protection efforts.
Along with this instability, the world is witnessing both deglobalization and disintegration. Studeman highlighted the perception that China exploited many international rules to reach the level of power they have today. Many in the U.S. now see the global system as “rigged,” with the increasingly prevalent outlook that it benefits “cheaters” and that politics have been pushed toward sidelining whole populations or states as the main frame for international relations; a mindset that seeds much of today’s political views. With this has come disintegration and new clusters of power, such as between China, Russia, and North Korea, facing democracies, which are encountering internal and external strains.
Dysfunction can be seen within democracies and is abetted by widespread disinformation that further impairs global stability and trust in governance and truth itself. With disinformation, how can we agree on a fact, or something that is well researched, to be able to make the right kinds of policy decisions? Studeman further underscored that dysfunction, like democracy, is on display as a form of governance that is not actually delivering the goods for their people, and explains why countries like China and Russia see opportunity to promote the idea that democracies are failing and therefore their form of governance is superior.
Is the United States Falling Behind?
Our global landscape currently reflects a key contrast between American and Chinese strategies in shaping world order. The U.S., Studeman believes, doesn’t have a vision for how we want to adjust to our changing globe; when there is no vision, someone else with a vision will fill this vacuum and China is actively seizing the opportunity. The U.S. retains significant resources but has struggled to change these into deployable instruments of national power that can be used decisively.
While China has had its own set of challenges including a collapsing property market, weak domestic consumption, declining foreign investment, and demographic pressures stemming from the one-child policy, the nation has maintained their strength through aggressive export strategies and building additional tools that can be quickly directed to achieve China’s goals. They continue to sustain aggressive export strategies, diversifying trade to Europe, Latin America, and Central Asia, expanding influence through regional institutions and trade networks that bypass the U.S. dollar, while the U.S. now accounts for only 16% of its exports, according to Studeman. As America is but a small fraction of China’s export market and therefore not as dependent on the U.S. market as they used to be, U.S. efforts to suppress Chinese exports or assert influence in global discourse is limited. China is actively building special trading relationships with various partners to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, and both China and Russia already engage in significant trade outside of the dollar system. China and Russia have allocated roughly 40% of their resources to deployable diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools, and this approach has allowed them to build flexible capabilities that can be deployed immediately, while China is additionally working to de-dollarize trade and advance digital currency.
To put it simply, the United States is behind. Studeman explained that as a nation the U.S. de-industrialized too much, not understanding that in fact rivalries and great powers rise and fall and we would have to be ready for it. The U.S. was too slow to see the danger in China's rise, and as Studeman highlighted, when you reduce a diplomatic instrument, you leave it open to somebody with a stronger diplomatic instrument. The U.S. has struggled to effectively demonstrate its informational and diplomatic capabilities, with public diplomacy being historically weak and efforts like the Global War on Terror have been politicized to the point where they would function as propaganda under the current presidential administration. Meanwhile, Chinese narratives are resonating on a global scale and capitalize on any U.S. retreat from regional and international bodies, utilizing such openings to assert additional legitimacy and control to further exclude the U.S. Studeman underscored that most of the world believes China, and by underinvesting in and underusing its diplomatic and informational instruments, the U.S. has left its tools of power comparatively weak. Chinese leadership continues to expand its presence globally and Studeman provided an example that the Chinese president is visiting South America more frequently than the U.S. president; China is gaining legitimacy where U.S. public diplomacy has faltered.
We Do Not Recognize the Gravity of the Sino-US Rivalry
Studeman warned that the U.S. has significantly underestimated the seriousness of China’s competition and the lengths in which the nation has gone to advance its global position. A large reason for China’s increase in strength is their access to U.S. academic and research institutions, industrial labs, and businesses. This allows them to obtain vital technological insights and intellectual property, as well as trade secrets that can accelerate Chinese development and avoid dead ends on research. The U.S. is largely dependent on Asian and South Asian talent in research and academia, which has created a vulnerable environment in which knowledge generated in the U.S. is often transferred back to China. Studeman emphasized that the Chinese live inside our industrial base, producing twice as many STEM PhDs and eight times as many B.S. engineering graduates in the U.S.. This, paired with having the world’s most advanced manufacturing system and growing AI capabilities, is dangerous. In a military sense, China continues to expand its nuclear arsenal to ensure their capacity to threaten and are simultaneously placing prolonged economic, political, and cyber pressure on Taiwan. China is confident, and largely confident internationally, and Studeman cautioned that the world has returned to a dangerous period of nuclear tension with both China and Russia taking this seriously. China’s goal, Studeman warned, is to create a nuclear force sufficiently capable of ensuring that in any scenario, they could destroy much, if not all, of the U.S. Once Chinese leaders believe they can guarantee this, they will likely seek to expand and solidify the capability even further. It is vital to watch the nuclear situation closely, as China positions itself as a dominant nation. They challenge U.S. confidence in the belief that innovation and democratic freedoms will always guarantee global leadership, which Studeman highlighted is a myth. The U.S. faces a significant disadvantage while China is advancing an assertive world vision that is increasingly accepted by much of the globe. If the U.S. does not commit the necessary resources and willpower to rebuild trust and define the future world order it wants to lead, Studeman cautioned, China will be ready to take that baton.
Are We in a State of Emergency?
Studeman emphasized that threats to the U.S. are close, even closer than many realize, coming not only from China but from Russia, Iran, North Korea, and client states like Belarus, Cuba, and Venezuela. The U.S. he believes, is becoming increasingly isolated, and it is vital to recognize that the U.S. needs to avoid placing a sole focus on short-term wins. Studeman described the current geopolitical environment as a cold war, noting that while its character is different, the nature of such strategic competition is the same. To position the U.S. effectively for the future, it is essential to strengthen the economy and protect critical infrastructure. While the country has historically responded effectively under emergency conditions, such as Pearl Harbor and 9/11, which united Americans behind capable leaders, today’s political environment discourages many qualified Americans from running for office. Regardless, navigating global competition requires avoiding scenarios in which China either fully collapses or becomes overwhelmingly dominant, as both extremes could provoke drastic responses from Beijing. The goal, Studeman emphasized, is for China to “muddle along” while the U.S. rebuilds and strengthens its position. We are approaching an “emergency condition,” making it critical for society to decide on difficult choices and work collectively toward a common cause.
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